Action Figure Daniel

Author: Daniel

  • “Noise” by Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R Sunstein, Jonathan Todd Ross

    • Bias (variance from the target) and noise (variance from others) appear is most organizations
    • System noise compounds rather than balance (cancel) out
    • Most people are content with maintaining a single world view
    • Focusing on common language allows us to avoid developing common standards
      • Conflict avoidance helps support this
    • (Feedback is really important to making consistent decisions)
    • Verifiability does not affect our estimates
      • (Just because something can be verified does not mean we are better at estimating it)
    • Decisions require predictive and evaluative judgements
    • Bias and noise are independent errors
    • Avoid mixing your values and facts
    • Waiting a few weeks to make a second guess helps improve personal guess
    • To get most accurate average estimates
      • Get input from other people
      • Ask yourself a second time, weeks later
      • Ask yourself to guess again, assuming your first guess is wrong
    • Summing up votes can have a huge boost in accuracy
    • Crowds are only wise if people register views independently from each other
    • Discussing ideas with others often intensifies original beliefs
    • “We do not need more accurate weights than our measures.”
    • “Frugal rules” (algorithms with few inputs) are often better than complex algorithms but not as good as ML
    • People are often willing to trust an algorithm until it makes a bad decision
    • Most things happen in “the Valley of the Norm” where it is easy to explain after the fact
    • Using comparisons instead of labels for more accurate judgements at scale
      • 7 is the magical number of categories
    • We like casual stories of explanation, even if they are not rational
    • Intelligence has a strong correlation with financial success
    • Open minded is better than strong confidence
    • Documenting each step helps to reduce bias due to information exposure

  • “The Design of Everyday Things” by Donald Norman

    • Blame bad design, not human behavior
    • Visibility is a good reminder of what can be done
    • 1:1 button-to-function ratio is the simplest design
    • There are “additives” and “substitutive” dimensions
    • Feedback is important to determine relationship
    • At the store, users care about prestige; at home, they care more about useability
    • Arbitrary design happens when the design is broken
    • Design so errors have a low cost
    • We blame the environment when we fail and praise ourselves when we succeed; we blame others when they fail and praise their environment when they succeed
    • We typically only store partial descriptions in memory (this saves time and space) enough to discriminate from similar items
    • Rote memory is difficult to maintain
    • Interpreting the arbitrary is not the same as understanding it
    • Reminders have signals and actions
    • If a design relays on labels, the design is faulty
    • Usability should be considered in the purchase
    • Seven steps of execution
      • Plan
      • Specify
      • Perform
      • Perceive
      • Interpret
      • Compare
    • Mistakes are made in the reflective stages (plan and compare)
    • Slips are made in the other stages
    • Focusing on aesthetics can be detrimental to functionality
    • Use groupings and shapes to make switches intuitive
    • Slips are doing something when intending to do another
      • Capture errors (starting a task with a common start but switching to another)
      • Description error (correct action on the wrong object)
      • Data driven errors (dialing the number you are staring at instead of from memory)
      • Association errors
      • Mode errors
    • We classify the rare as either unique or common and both are wrong
    • Warning signals are rarely the solution
    • Iterative processes allowed to naturally improve the product over time
    • If you cannot constrain, standardize

  • “Nudge” by Richard H Thaler and Cass R Sunstein

    • Choice architects know how to promote the good even if not perfect
    • “Liberal paternalism” is the goal
      • Liberty to choose
      • Make it difficult to make ‘bad’ decisions
    • The default option is the path of least resistance that people tend to most frequently go with
    • Well-chosen defaults are a great way of subtly nudging
    • People do well choosing in context where they have experience and feedback as rapid
    • Nudging is better governance in general
    • Reactance is when people do the opposite of the default out of protest
    • We have two thinking systems one fast and automatic, the other slow and reflective
    • People are dynamically inconsistent; wanting to go for a run later in the day but later skipping the run because they are lazing
    • Temptation is when we consume more in a hot state than we planned to in a cold state
    • People conform more readily when stating things publicly
    • Groups tend towards Collective Conservatism (groups working to preserve the status quo)
    • Businesses find ways to support what people want, whether it is good for them or not
    • Providential norms trump demographic norms
    • Implementation plans help improve follow through
    • Feedback timing is crucial to improvement
    • Less understanding should translate to fewer options or better nudges
    • “No one makes money convincing people to not buy snake oil.”
    • Incentive choices
      • Who chooses
      • Who uses
      • Who pays
      • Who profits
    • Salience is understanding the incentives before you
    • Dairy Farmer and the Pasture problem
      • Conditional cooperatives
    • Liberty to choose
    • Make it difficult to make ‘bad’ decisions

  • “The First 90 Days” by Michael D Watkins

    • What made you successful before is not likely to keep being successful
    • When one is in transition, all are in transition
    • Promotions
      • You need to see things at a higher level than before
      • What you delegate needs to change
    • Onboarding
      • Understand what they want to do differently
      • You are the transplant, be wary of the org’s immune system
      • Orient to the business
      • Develop stakeholder connections, horizontally and vertically
      • Have frequent objective check-ins
      • Adapt to the culture
    • Pay attention to
      • How do people get support (vertical or horizontal)
      • Meetings (discussions or rubber-stamps)
      • Execution (process or people)
      • Conflict (encouraged or avoided)
      • Recognition (personal or team)
      • Objectives (ends or means)
    • Look for a cultural interpreter
    • Be wary of the problems you like to solve; “To a man with a hammer, every problem looks like a nail”
    • Always ask, “How did we get here?” to understand the history and see a path forward
    • There are
      • Start-ups
      • Turn arounds
      • Accelerating
      • Realignment
      • Sustaining success
    • Negotiating success with your new boss
      • Do not take “the extra rope”
      • Meet regularly, even if you do not like them
    • Do not surprise bosses
    • Early wins should fit into longer term goals, even if you forgo “low hanging fruit”

  • “What Happened To You” by Bruce D Pretty and Oprah Winfrey

    • All information processing goes bottom up
    • Brains develop from the bottom up
    • The younger you are, the more impressionable you are, even if you do not understand what is going on
    • Trauma is more severe when we do not have the language to describe it
    • Rhythm calms and leads to regulation
    • Infants cannot self-regulate
    • We have three neural systems: regulation, relationship, and rewards
    • Fight, flight, freeze, or disengage
      • We tend to disengage when we cannot otherwise fight or flee (we are too young or small)
    • Intense self-medication is often an attempt to soothe trauma
    • Experience is important to changing how the brain works
    • For infants, care is love
    • Controllability of stress is what is important
    • Flock (check to see what everyone else is doing), freeze (to assess what is going on), fight, or flee
    • There is a difference between believing you deserve happiness and knowing you are worthy of it
    • Trauma has three key aspects: event, experience, and effects
    • Timing makes a huge difference
      • The younger the trauma, the worse the effects
    • Early on, we can only take small doses of therapeutic revisiting
    • “What happened to us?” Is also important to ask
    • We inherit through genes, gene expression, behavior, and traditions
    • Infants need a few deep, consistent relationships
    • We are most comfortable when our experience lines up with our world view
      • This is why we sabotage relationships
      • (We are taught how to be treated then we teach people how to treat us)
    • “We feel better with the certainty of misery than the misery of uncertainty.”
    • Children are malleable not resilient
      • (Children are anti-fragile)
    • Regulate, relate, and then reason