“Our Dollar, Your Problem” by Kenneth Rogoff

  • The dollars reach is a unique oddity in history
  • Inflation is inherently a minor default
  • Seahawk movie
  • Currency exchange rates were based on USD
  • Other currencies are too thin to support large exchanges
  • Size matters but is not everything
  • The US attracts foreign investment seeking safer investments
  • We then invest in foreign markets for better returns
  • Europe’s low spend in defense allows it to spend much on social programs
  • Japan’s debt is really high
    • A weak Japan is not in the US interests
  • “This time is different”
  • If not on the Euro, Greece and Spain could have printed its own money to cover debt and might not have been trusted with so much debt
  • Central Banks speak to markets like owners speak to dogs, sentiment is more important than content
  • Asia is half of the USD block
  • Trade deficit is not as important as the saving/spending rate
  • China orchestrated worked migration to prevent over pressure
  • The IMF is judged on how well they match official numbers, not actual numbers

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