- (Why do we separate nature from art? They are representations of each other.)
- We use models to interpret data
- Risk is quantifiable uncertainty
- Uncertainty is unquantifiable understanding
- Few surprising events are Black Swans
- (We often just ignore the warning signs)
- Everything has a value judgement
- “Past performance is no guarantee of future success”
- Models can only answer certain questions in certain ways
- When judging models, we are looking for one that is “adequate for the task”
- All models are “wrong” in that they are not reality
- Stylized facts are generally true but not true in detail
- Artists are modelers
- Community standards are important
- Stochastic parrots repeat what they have been taught but do not understand any of it
- We like just so stories in models, but they are not usually actually reflective of reality
- Statistics are for big data where models are for small data
- (Be careful with percentages, it is easy to lose reality in them)
- Probabilities are reflections of beliefs not reality
- “Counter performative” is when we avoid the prediction of the model
- We need to differentiate between scientific observation and value judgements
- (And value judgements embedded in scientific observations. We can only look at so many things and we use value judgements to decide what to look at.)
- We need to accept that other people have different opinions because they think about things differently and make different value judgements
- We have a bigger risk of humans descending to the level of AI than AI ascending to human levels
- You may lose your wealth but it is difficult to lose your privilege
- What matters is if the model helped you make better plans, not if it was correct
- The question of how we should act in the world is always a value judgement
- Principles for modelling:
- Define the purpose
- Make sure the people and purposes are included
- We know nothing for certain but we certainly know something
- All models require a value judgement
- If you cannot see them, ask the people who are affected by the model to identify the value judgments
- All for differences of opinions
- Write about the real world
- Use many models
- Define the purpose
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