- Positive thinking is only good if it changes your behavior
- We bias to look for information that let’s us say “Yes” to questions
- Asking “What is the chance that you are wrong?” helps us understand our overconfidence
- Point predictions problems (vs spread predictions)
- The number will be wrong
- Possibilities have a range of probabilities
- Single numbers inflate confidence in the number
- Desirability increases confidence
- Before you walk into a negotiation, figure out your Best Alternative
- Clarifying standards improves estimation accuracy
- We want to promote “good bets” not “result orientation”
- Ask yourself “which” choice you want (comparing all available options) instead of “whether” (not comparing)
- Do a pre-mortem by planning for what can go wrong
- “Invert! Always invert!”
- Adding details improves accuracy
- The lowest bid is often not picked
- “If, after playing for 30 minutes, you don’t know who the Patsy is, you’re the Patsy.”
- Providing ranges of certainty does more than absolute certainty
- Accuracy beats optimism and pessimism