Action Figure Daniel

Category: Reading

  • “Let Them Eat Tweets” by Jacob S. Hacker

    • Conservatives have long been associated with the affluent
    • Sometimes conservatives offer social packages to defend against liberal and socialist incursions

  • “Decision Points” by George W Bush

    • People want to govern themselves
      • (And are often unfit to do so)
    • Promoting the “Freedom Doctrine” promotes our national security and interests
    • TARP was necessary to save the system
      • (Socializing a company to save it contradicts Free Market notions. I am fine with this if we recognize such when we are fighting for Free Markets. It is hypocritical to demand a purely Free Market while things are good, but then be willing to socially rescue when things go bad. It would be better to recognize that things will go bad and build in safety checks and insurance ahead of time.)

  • “America by Heart” by Sarah Palin

    • We were given the ability to make choices by God
    • Government should not do anything to remove our ability to make choices, except when those choices impede on another
      • (I struggle with this on two fronts:
        • Many of us are not smart, skilled, or have enough time to correctly decide important things with lasting effect. I know what I want for lunch today. Do I want a ROTH or Traditional IRA? I am not sure. What level of education and school will best suit my career? I did not even know what my career would be while I was in school, and I am still not sure if more education would help me excel.
        • Some portion of the population (I argue a substantial portion of citizens) would make poor decisions. My understanding of Christian mandates says that we need to care of the poor and needy with no exceptions given for those for “did it to themselves”.
      • So, how then do we reconcile small government with a need to provide for those unable to provide for themselves (whether through their own choices or not)? Certainly, various religious organizations are positioned to assist. Is the subtext then that all citizens should be religiously affiliated? And those who do not line up with any given religious organization in their area will not get any support? Does the Christian mandate forbid government from fulfilling these obligations? To this last one, I do not believe so. While some religious organizations are well positioned to help the poor at scale, most are not. This would lead to a waste of resources and unequal application of benefits. Additionally, religions are more likely to make value judgements when administering benefits than a government.
      • What about those who are not able to find a suitable religious organization and who make poor choices? Do we just abandon them? Would it not be more fully embrace of the Christian mandate to craft society in a way that limits some choices (by issuing higher taxes and mandating participation in health and retirement programs) but provides safety nets for the inevitable poor decisions?
      • Finally, there are claims of wondrous bounties that come when one’s social safety is not tied to employment. For example, people who stick low pay and bad schools for their children but reasonable healthcare benefits could more freely move around if the healthcare was universally available.)

  • “Escaping From Model Land” by Erica Thompson

    • (Why do we separate nature from art? They are representations of each other.)
    • We use models to interpret data
    • Risk is quantifiable uncertainty
    • Uncertainty is unquantifiable understanding
    • Few surprising events are Black Swans
      • (We often just ignore the warning signs)
    • Everything has a value judgement
    • “Past performance is no guarantee of future success”
    • Models can only answer certain questions in certain ways
    • When judging models, we are looking for one that is “adequate for the task”
    • All models are “wrong” in that they are not reality
    • Stylized facts are generally true but not true in detail
    • Artists are modelers
    • Community standards are important
    • Stochastic parrots repeat what they have been taught but do not understand any of it
    • We like just so stories in models, but they are not usually actually reflective of reality
    • Statistics are for big data where models are for small data
    • (Be careful with percentages, it is easy to lose reality in them)
    • Probabilities are reflections of beliefs not reality
    • “Counter performative” is when we avoid the prediction of the model
    • We need to differentiate between scientific observation and value judgements
    • (And value judgements embedded in scientific observations. We can only look at so many things and we use value judgements to decide what to look at.)
    • We need to accept that other people have different opinions because they think about things differently and make different value judgements
    • We have a bigger risk of humans descending to the level of AI than AI ascending to human levels
    • You may lose your wealth but it is difficult to lose your privilege
    • What matters is if the model helped you make better plans, not if it was correct
    • The question of how we should act in the world is always a value judgement
    • Principles for modelling:
      • Define the purpose
        • Make sure the people and purposes are included
      • We know nothing for certain but we certainly know something
      • All models require a value judgement
        • If you cannot see them, ask the people who are affected by the model to identify the value judgments
        • All for differences of opinions
      • Write about the real world
      • Use many models

  • “The New Map” by Daniel Yergin

    • Wars often take longer than planned
    • Cars are no longer the “coming of age” that they used to for youth
    • Energy will continue to play a huge role in the world
    • (Why are we still not using Nuclear?)