Action Figure Daniel

Author: Daniel

  • “Escaping From Model Land” by Erica Thompson

    • (Why do we separate nature from art? They are representations of each other.)
    • We use models to interpret data
    • Risk is quantifiable uncertainty
    • Uncertainty is unquantifiable understanding
    • Few surprising events are Black Swans
      • (We often just ignore the warning signs)
    • Everything has a value judgement
    • “Past performance is no guarantee of future success”
    • Models can only answer certain questions in certain ways
    • When judging models, we are looking for one that is “adequate for the task”
    • All models are “wrong” in that they are not reality
    • Stylized facts are generally true but not true in detail
    • Artists are modelers
    • Community standards are important
    • Stochastic parrots repeat what they have been taught but do not understand any of it
    • We like just so stories in models, but they are not usually actually reflective of reality
    • Statistics are for big data where models are for small data
    • (Be careful with percentages, it is easy to lose reality in them)
    • Probabilities are reflections of beliefs not reality
    • “Counter performative” is when we avoid the prediction of the model
    • We need to differentiate between scientific observation and value judgements
    • (And value judgements embedded in scientific observations. We can only look at so many things and we use value judgements to decide what to look at.)
    • We need to accept that other people have different opinions because they think about things differently and make different value judgements
    • We have a bigger risk of humans descending to the level of AI than AI ascending to human levels
    • You may lose your wealth but it is difficult to lose your privilege
    • What matters is if the model helped you make better plans, not if it was correct
    • The question of how we should act in the world is always a value judgement
    • Principles for modelling:
      • Define the purpose
        • Make sure the people and purposes are included
      • We know nothing for certain but we certainly know something
      • All models require a value judgement
        • If you cannot see them, ask the people who are affected by the model to identify the value judgments
        • All for differences of opinions
      • Write about the real world
      • Use many models

  • “The New Map” by Daniel Yergin

    • Wars often take longer than planned
    • Cars are no longer the “coming of age” that they used to for youth
    • Energy will continue to play a huge role in the world
    • (Why are we still not using Nuclear?)

  • “The Prize” by Daniel Yergin

    • Philanthropy is by nature undemocratic
    • Private funds do not need public disclosure

  • “Reimagining Design” by Kevin G Bethune

    • Interdisciplinary is hard
    • We cannot innovate at gunpoint
    • Values migrate over time

  • “Endless Forms” by Seirian Summer

    • Bees are wasps that went vegetarian
    • Ants are wasps that lost their wings
    • Wasps are highly social
    • Wasps can distinguish nest mates
    • Social wasps are not very faithful,
    • Honeybee queens can live up to 20 years
    • Wasp nests are only used once
    • Wasps tend to go after whatever insects are the most abundant at the time
    • Cross pollinated cotton grows better
    • Cotton flowers are only viable for several hours