- Uncertainty is about one’s relationship with the outside world
- “Unknown knowns” is an important category
- Anxiety should give way to likely outcomes
- Chance is for random acts
- “Ignorance” is different from “uncertainty”
- ‘Hazards’ are damage from risks
- Hedgehog knows one big thing while the fox knows many things
- Where possible, use numbers to communicate uncertainty
- Random values are better thought as being “swamped” rather than “due”
- “Monte Carlo” was named from “The name comes from the Monte Carlo Casino in Monaco, where the primary developer of the method, mathematician Stanisław Ulam, was inspired by his uncle’s gambling habits.”
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method
- It is running simulation to derive a model rather than calculating it
- Avoid picking your birthday in a lottery to reduce the number of people you would share with
- Never give a probably of 1:1 except to known True things
- Probability is not a determined attribute of the natural world
- Having an “none of the above” bucket lets you track unknowns and adjust later
- “Once in a hundred years” does not mean you have 100 years between incidents
- Providing baseline-risk is useful (what are your chances of randomly dying tomorrow)
- Noting a lack of certainty does not tend to directly erode trust
- Especially if you are clear about what is being done to manage the uncertainty and what the next steps are
- Seek to inform rather than persuade
- Include what can and cannot be inferred from the data
- Don’t strive to be trusted but to be trustworthy
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